916
FXSA20 KWBC 081839
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
NOTE: THE NEXT UPDATE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN WILL
BE AVAILABLE ON 12 NOVEMBER 2024.
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 08 NOV 2024 AT 1840 UTC:
IN SOUTH AMERICA ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN REGION WILL BE IN THE
PRESENCE OF THE MEANDERING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC...AND ELONGATES THROUGH CENTRAL
BRASIL. THE TROUGHING PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN REGION IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ARE FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
BOLIVIA...AND SOUTH BRASIL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SACZ) THAT IS FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION FROM SOUTH BRASIL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...INTO BOLIVIA...AND SOUTH PERU. THE ELEVATED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STRENGTHENING THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE BOLIVIAN
HIGH IS PRESENT AND EXTENDS FROM PERU INTO SOUTH CENTRAL BRASIL.
THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO THE POTENT AND ENHANCE THE
JET TO THE SOUTH OVER ARGENTINA WITH THE APPROACHING WIDE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONE OF THE CONTINENT. TO THE EAST IN
BRASIL...THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SACZ DEVELOPMENT
EXTENDS TROUGH THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AS
THE BOLIVIAN HIGH DOMINATES AND PUSHES INTO THE REGION IN THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE SACZ IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WEAKENING ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
EXPECTED MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF BRASIL. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF SAO PAULO...RIO DE
JANEIRO...AND ESPIRITO SANTO...AS WELL AS INTO MINAS GERAIS OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 50-100MM ARE EXPECTED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY. WITH THE SACZ OVER THE
REGION...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PERU
THROUGH BOLIVIA...AND INTO WEST AND SOUTH BRASIL.
IN THE SOUTHERN CONE OF THE CONTINENT...THE POTENT UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH BEINGS TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CHILE AND
ARGENTINA...ENHANCING THE UPPER JET OVER CENTRAL CHILE WITH THE
PASSING UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN THE MID LEVELS...SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN REGION OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ARGENTINA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ACTING AS TRIGGERS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL ARGENTINA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND WILL PROPAGATE
INTO NORTH ARGENTINA BY SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. WITH THE SACZ WEAKENING IN BOLIVIA AND WEST BRASIL...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY. IN SOUTHERN
CHILE...THE ENTRANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL FAVOR THE INCREASE
OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WITH THE ASSISTANCE FROM THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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