392
FXUS01 KWBC 081955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2024
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 09 2024 - 00Z MON NOV 11 2024
...HISTORIC WINTER STORM TO BRING MORE HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, AND THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
THIS WEEKEND...
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVY COASTAL RAINS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...
A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT, INCLUDING AREAS OF COLORADO,
NEW MEXICO AND SMALL PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION. GOING THROUGH TONIGHT, AREAS OF EASTERN COLORADO WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY OVER A FOOT
OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SNOWFALL RATES
THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL AT 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. AS A RESULT, TRAVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE, AND ESPECIALLY WITH
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ALREADY LOCALLY IN PLACE. THE VERY
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HISTORIC,
MULTI-DAY WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SNOW
TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE TO THE EAST, ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THE INFLUX
OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL TO LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION GOING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4)
COVERS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER LOCALLY SATURATED GROUND MAY LEAD
TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM
EJECTS FARTHER OUT OVER THE PLAINS, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE SAME COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION, AND WITH SOME AREAS
STILL MOIST FROM HEAVY RAINS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) COVERS
THIS REGION AS WELL. SOME OF THESE RAINS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD, BUT
AREAS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT SEE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL GREATLY BENEFIT FROM THESE RAINS GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY DRY WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST MONTH.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MANY AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND
GULF COAST STATES WILL STILL BE SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL INCLUDE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THERE MAY BE A FEW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDED. MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH SOME EXCEPTION TO THE INTERIOR OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHERE THE ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN BY SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AND
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS AREA WHERE THE ONGOING WINTER STORM IS FOCUSED SHOULD SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON
SATURDAY, WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A NEW STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL BRING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. THIS INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
THE COASTAL RANGES OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, AND SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOR THE CASCADES. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BE
FOCUSED OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WHERE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
ORRISON
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