069
FXUS06 KWBC 082002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 08 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 18 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR SENDING A FAIRLY STRONG 500-HPA
TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AS IT SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES.
MEANWHILE, A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
EAST COAST BY DAY 8 WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE 500-HPA TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
DEPARTURES SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. TODAY, THE CMCE AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SHOWING
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS FAR EAST AS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE GEFS
REFORECAST PUSHES BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE CLOSER TO THE CMCE AND
ECENS REFORECASTS, SO THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO
THE EAST COAST, PREDICTED MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE
DAVIS STRAIT MAY LEAD TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
DAY 6 THAT STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, BUT
THIS COULD CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ONLY A SLIGHT LEAN
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR NEW ENGLAND.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING FRONT PROGRESS DEVELOPING IN OR NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSHING EASTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN DOES THE
SAME. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAISE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED ODDS STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD. TODAY, THE GEFS BRINGS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE OTHER TWO ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT NOT
DRAMATICALLY SO, WHILE THE AMOUNTS OBSERVED OVER LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ARE HIGHER IN THE CMCE AND ECENS. THESE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS, HOWEVER, DON’T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE 6- TO
10-DAY OUTLOOK, WITH THE AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY SOMEWHAT ABOVE-NORMAL. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWS THE PROGRESS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST, SO ODDS LEAN TOWARD DRIER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THESE REGIONS.
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS ALASKA GENERATE A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
STATE. THIS SHOULD DISLODGE ANY COLDER AIR IN SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AS
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ENCROACH ON THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH RAISES THE
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED CLOSE TO THE STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET, WITH ODDS FOR SURPLUS AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE MAINLAND WHILE ODDS FOR WETNESS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS ALONG WITH THE CONSOLIDATIONS, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN AND DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS DERIVED FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 22 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA LONGWAVE PATTERN
FORECAST WHICH IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BUT SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED AND
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC WHILE A BROAD SWATH OF BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS STRETCHES
FROM MOST OF ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN TIER OF NORTH AMERICA.
FARTHER EAST, A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTWARD CONUS EXTENDS NORTHWARD
TO A STRONGER 500-HPA ANOMALY MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT AND
COVERING MOST AREAS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA EASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 6Z GEFS AND THE CMCE MEAN SHOW MORE OF A SEPARATION BETWEEN
THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND THE STRONG ANOMALY CENTERED OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT,
WITH THE GEFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECENS MEAN SHOWING MORE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BUT SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER PERIOD, THE INCONSISTENCIES OF THE
DETAILS ARE RELATIVELY SMALL COMPARED TO THE CONSISTENT AND STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONG THE TOOLS REGARDING THE GENERAL 500-HPA PATTERN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
PACIFIC EASTWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN
EXCELLENT BROAD-SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS,
WITH RELATIVELY MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DETAILS. THE TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE MODERATE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER EAST KEEPS ENHANCED
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE, THE BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS BRINGS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
TO MOST OF THE CONUS. WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
LIKELY BRINGING MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD, THE WEAKLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR UNUSUAL DRYNESS IN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS GIVES WAY TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER FOR WEEK-2 OVERALL AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES THERE LATER IN THE
PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT GIVEN THE DRY CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS TIME OF YEAR, ONLY SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS ABOVE-NORMAL, SO TOTALS IN THESE REGIONS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN IN OTHER PARTS OF THE FAR WEST AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EASTWARD.
FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY, TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFER CONFLICTING SIGNALS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THEREFORE, THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK
LEANED TOWARDS THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL (SKILL-WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF GEFS AND
ECENS). LOWERING 500-HPA HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TOWARD A RETURN OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER IN MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THERE COULD BE VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, RESULTING IN NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL JET NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PERSIST BUT MAY WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. STILL, THIS PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS OR
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, ENHANCING ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE STATE.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LONGWAVE PATTERN AND GOOD BROAD-SCALE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19541024 - 19611114 - 19531119 - 19611105 - 19801122
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19611105 - 19801121 - 19931020 - 19611114 - 19981021
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 18 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 22 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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