163
FXUS01 KWBC 120726
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 12 2024 - 12Z THU NOV 14 2024
...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING HEAVY, LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE LOWER OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY,
COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST
AND THE WEST TODAY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE LOWER ELEVATION WINTRY MIX AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TODAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
APPROACH THE WEST, BRINGING A WAVE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
TRIGGERING INCREASINGLY HEAVIER LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A WINTRY
MIX INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES
WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING TODAY, EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO COASTAL NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND MAINE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS
MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEST BEGINS
TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OVER THE PLAINS. INITIALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURN INTENSIFIES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MID-SOUTH, AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALLS. MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH LOWER INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 5-15 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE GREAT LAKES, 50S IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, 60S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS, 70S FOR TEXAS AND
THE SOUTHEAST, AND 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGHS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MIDWEST TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AS HIGHS MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S. COOLER,
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME TO THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID-60S. THE MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AS WELL, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR
LOCATIONS, 60S FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA, AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE BY AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY.
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