788
FXCA20 KWBC 121836
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 NOV 2024 AT 1830 UTC:
THE UPPER DIVERGENT MJO IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE AMERICAS...WHICH
IS YIELDING TO A TRANSITION TOWARDS NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE
LARGE SCALE. HOWEVER...UPPER DIVERGENCE MIGHT STILL CONTINUE TO BE
ENHANCED DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE...LIKELY TO ENHANCE AREAS WHERE
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.
A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A BROAD DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND EXTENDS INTO
NORTHEAST CENTRAL AMERICA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION ALONG ITS PERIPHERY...WHICH IS STIMULATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DISTURBANCE. IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AS THE DISTURBANCE
ORGANIZES TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...LONG FETCH SOUTHWESTERLY ARE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THESE ARE OCCURRING IN A REGION OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 60MM STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ON TUESDAY...THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE HAITIAN
PENINSULA. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 50-100MM IN THE HAITIAN PENINSULA WHILE IN JAMAICA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MOIST PLUME IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE IN JAMAICA WHERE IT WILL FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON
THURSDAY...DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS WILL
FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST CONTINUES BEING SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...IN PARTICULAR COSTA RICA. DUE TO THE CONTINUED LOWERING
OF SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE TRANSPORTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO TERRAIN OF COSTA RICA...WEST PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE VENTILATION ON A DAILY BASIS...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION EVENTS TO CONTINUE. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
THE LARGEST AMOUNTS TO CLUSTER WEST COSTA RICA/FAR WESTERN PANAMA
WHERE EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE MONSOON
TROUGH CONVECTION IN WEST AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA/NORTH COSTA RICA
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
WEST PANAMA AND WESTERN COSTA RICA TO 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-125MM. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
CLUSTERING IN WESTERN COSTA RICA WHERE EXPECT 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA 75-150MM. IN NORTHWEST COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWEST NICARAGUA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. NOTE THAT AS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ORGANIZES INTO THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...THE WESTERLIES IN
THE PACIFIC BASIN SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY
ELEVATE ONCE AGAIN THE RISK FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS SUSTAINING A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY TUESDAY EVENING
EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG 30N 70W INTO NORTH FLORIDA. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAIT. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS THE VI AND GREATER ANTILLES. A WEAKER FRONT IS FORMING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
HISPANIOLA. BY THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM DEVELOPING IN
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND FAR SOUTHEAST CUBA...WHILE IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE VI EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12
TW 18N 73W 75W 77W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 72W AND SOUTH OF 18N. THIS WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...WHICH IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC.
THE BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
ABSORB THE WAVE. IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY IN
JAMAICA. IN HAITI...SOUTHERLY FLOW TRAILING THE WAVE IS ENHANCING
OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IN THE HAITIAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS - BARBADOS)
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