910
FXUS01 KWBC 130734
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
VALID 12Z WED NOV 13 2024 - 12Z FRI NOV 15 2024
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGS HEAVY COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE LOWER OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE RISK FOR SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND GULF COAST STATES WHILE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE WEST...
HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF MOISTURE/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
MOVE INLAND OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES
SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR FLOODING.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BRINGING RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MORE SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES. PRECIPIATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH MORE MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED
AS THE MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WANES.
GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP TRIGGER A BROAD AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. GREATER AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT CLOSER TO
THE GULF AS WELL AS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN FOR THE LOWER OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4) IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GREATER
RAINFALL RATES AND VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM PRIOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS MAY LEAD TO A FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY,
APPALACHIANS, AND THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST, WHILE LINGERING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. SOME MORE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND CAROLINAS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. THE REST OF THE
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GULF COAST STATES CONTINUE TO SEE
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 5-15 DEGREES THIS WEEK.
FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S
IN THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST; 50S IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS; 50S AND
60S IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO
VALLEY; THE 70S FOR TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
THE 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO FLORIDA. FRONTAL PASSAGES
AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IN THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE IN THESE
AREAS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 30S AND 40S IN NEW ENGLAND,
THE 40S AND 50S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE 50S AND 60S FROM THE
CAROLINAS SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. IN THE WEST, HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR WEST, THE
60S IN CALIFORNIA, AND THE 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR EASTERN INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND THE
80S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHPSOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY
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