222
FXUS01 KWBC 132007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
VALID 00Z THU NOV 14 2024 - 00Z SAT NOV 16 2024
...HEAVY COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SCATTERED BY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS LOWER OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS, ENHANCED RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...
HEAVY LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE
CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY TONIGHT AS THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE JET STREAM
PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. BY THURSDAY, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED A
COLD FRONT DIP INTO THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH COLDER
AND WINDIER CONDITIONS FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE A FOOT OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
AS AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FINE AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE EASTERN U.S., GULF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG A WEAK
FRONT TOGETHER WITH A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMER HURRICANE RAFAEL. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL HELP TRIGGER A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATER AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT CLOSER TO THE GULF AS
WELL AS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE
LOWER OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WHERE A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GREATER RAINFALL RATES AND
VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM PRIOR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND
THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST, WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME MORE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENHANCED AS A COASTAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
BLUSTERY WINDS AND ENHANCED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND GULF COAST STATES CONTINUE TO SEE
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 5-15 DEGREES THIS WEEK.
FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S IN
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST; 50S IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS; 50S AND 60S
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY;
THE 70S FOR TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE 80S
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO FLORIDA. FRONTAL PASSAGES AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IN THE WEST
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE IN THESE AREAS.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 30S AND 40S IN NEW ENGLAND, THE 40S
AND 50S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE 50S AND 60S FROM THE
CAROLINAS SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. IN THE WEST, HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR WEST, THE
60S IN CALIFORNIA, AND THE 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR EASTERN INTERIOR AREAS ON THURSDAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND THE
80S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY, COLDER AIR WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE WEST COAST WHILE RAIN WILL KEEP IT COOL ALONG THE
EAST COAST.
KONG/PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHPSOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY
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