668
FXSA20 KWBC 141838
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 14 NOV 2024 AT 1830 UTC:
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER
RIDGE/BOLIVIAN HIGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
AND EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BRASIL. IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BRASIL...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AND BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH BY
FRIDAY...ENHANCED BY THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
SOUTH AMERICA REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE CONVERGING ALONG WEST AND CENTRAL BRASIL...WHERE THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXCEEDING 50MM IN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
BRASIL...IN TURN FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AS THE
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE PROPAGATING THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS FURTHER
WEST...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEST
BRASIL...AND WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
ALONG THE CORDILLERA IN PERU AND BOLIVIA INTERACTIONS WITH THE
TERRAIN WILL FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST AND THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN PERU...NORTH
BOLIVIA...AND WEST/SOUTH BRASIL. IN SOUTHERN BRASIL...THE UPPER
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND FAVOR THE RISK OF MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
FROM MINAS GERAIS TO PARA-BRASIL...WHILE MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE
EXPECTED FROM MATO GROSSO TO WEST PARA AND EAST AMAZONAS. THESE
REGIONS COULD SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS THAT ARE HIGHER. IN THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CONTINENT EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN CENTRAL PERU AND
NORTH PERU/ECUADOR AND INTO SOUTH COLOMBIA. ON FRIDAY...THE MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM AR EXPECTED FROM SOUTH PARA INTO MATO GROSSO...AND AS
SOUTH AS GOIAS. MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED IN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...RONDONIA...AND WEST PARA...INTO SAO PAULO. OTHER
REGIONS THAT WILL SEE MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE CENTRAL PERU WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND SOUTH PERU INTO WEST BOLIVIA WITH MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-70MM ARE
EXPECTED FROM AMAZONAS-BRASIL THROUGH MATO GROSSO...AND INTO SAO
PAULO. THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED.
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE CONTINENT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
ENTERED CHILE AND ARGENTINA AND WILL EXTEND INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS THAT ARE HIGHER THAN
25-30MM IN LOS LAGOS AND NORTH AYSEN...WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH
THE TERRAIN. ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE
REGION...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION ON
THURSDAY. FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF LOS LAGOS TO SOUTH AYSEN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ON
FRIDAY...A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHEN THE AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES IN LOS LAGOS AND AYSEN. IN
MAGALLANES...A MOISTURE PLUME IS ENTERING THE REGION THAT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE ENTRANCE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WHILE A WEAK JET IS
EXPECTED TO ASSIST WITH THE ENHANCED DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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