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FXCA20 KWBC 141855
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 NOV 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
THE MJO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS UPPER DIVERGENT.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...WHICH WILL REINFORCE A FEW
AREAS OF SENSITIVE WEATHER.
THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WHICH IS LOCATED CLOSE TO NORTHEAST CENTRAL AMERICA. NHC'S 15 UTC
ADVISORY INDICATED THAT THE DEPRESSION CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 82.6W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT. THE DEPRESSION WAS
MOVING TO THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AND AT 12KT. THE MOST CONCERNING
IMPACTS OF NINETEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE IS EXTREME RAINFALL
AS MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH STEEP TERRAIN IN NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 100-200MM IN NORTHERN HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...WHILE IN COASTAL BELIZE/EAST GUATEMALA AND CENTRAL
HONDURAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 150-250MM IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HONDURAS...WHILE IN BELIZE AND NORTHEAST HONDURAS EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 100-200MM IN
ISLAS DE LA BAHIA AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS...WHILE IN BELIZE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN HONDURAS EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM.
NINETEEN WILL ALSO CONTINUE EXERTING INDIRECT IMPACTS IN REMOTE
REGIONS. IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LOWERING OF
THE PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH NINETEEN WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH NORTHWARD WHILE ENHANCING THE INFLOW OF MOIST
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES INTO WEST PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EXP0ECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM FROM SOUTHWEST
NICARAGUA INTO WEST PANAMA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM
FROM WESTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH WEST PANAMA. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN THE GULF OF FONSECA/NORTHWEST NICARAGUA
REGION...AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN SOUTHWEST NICARAGUA AND WESTERN
COSTA RICA. THREE-DAY TOTALS IN NORTHERN HONDURAS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF REACHING 400-600MM.
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS SUSTAINING A
SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. BY THURSDAY
EVENING EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS 21N 58W...NORTHERN
VI...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY...BUT INTERACTIONS WITH A NEW UPPER TROUGH
WILL UNDULATE THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS 20N 65W...SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...WHILE IN HAITI AND SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER OPEN
WATERS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ON SATURDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. NOTE THAT A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTYURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN THE
VI/FAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE USA IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP A SURFACE FRONT THAT PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. NOTE THAT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A POTENT TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEVELOP FRONTOGENESIS AND
BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT A BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
SONORA...SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALSO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12
NONE
GALVEZ...(WPC)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA/MB - BRAZIL)
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