833
FOUS30 KWBC 150043
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
DAY 1
VALID 01Z FRI NOV 15 2024 - 12Z FRI NOV 15 2024
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
..01Z UPDATE
SIMILAR THINKING TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK APPLIES, WHERE IN A
WORST-CASE SCENARIO, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS/EASTERN NC/SOUTHEASTERN VA. THERE IS
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR 3+ INCHES FROM THE 18Z HREF TO FALL THROUGH 12Z
IN/AROUND CAPE HATTERAS, BUT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES
REMAINS BELOW THE FFG THRESHOLDS. 18Z HREF DOES SNOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES (70+ PERCENT) OF >1"/HR RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE NC
OBX, INCLUDING CAPE HATTERAS, BETWEEN 06-10Z. PROBABILITIES OF 2+
IN/HR RATES PEAK BETWEEN 40-50% BETWEEN 08-10Z, WHILE PEAK 3HR
PROBS OF 3+ IN/HR RATES TOP OUT BETWEEN 50-60%. LATEST 3 HOURLY FFG
ACROSS THE NC OBX IS 4+ INCHES, SO AGAIN EVEN WITH THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR THESE RAINFALL RATES
WILL FALL SHORT OF THE LATEST FFG THRESHOLDS. THIS AS THE GREATER
DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES OVER 500 J/KG) REMAINS OFFSHORE.
HURLEY/OTTO
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MATURING SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE VA/NC COAST WILL AMPLIFY RAINFALL
PROSPECTS OVER THE VA TIDEWATER INTO EASTERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A DEVELOPING AXIS OF DEFORMATION DRIVING ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TOTALS BETWEEN
1.5-3" ARE FORECAST WITHIN THESE ZONES WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE OVER URBAN ZONES AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST, COINCIDING WITH
COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY OCCURRING. RAINFALL RATES WILL FALL SHORT
OF THE NECESSARY CRITERIA TO MEET FFG EXCEEDANCE, HOWEVER A NON-
ZERO THREAT WILL EXIST FOR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHERN NC
INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VA IN URBAN ZONES THAT ARE MORE PRONE
TO FLOODING PROSPECTS. THIS IS STILL BELOW THE 5% THRESHOLD
NECESSARY FOR FLASH FLOODING LEADING TO A CONTINUED NIL ERO, BUT
NON-ZERO THREAT.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 2
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 15 2024 - 12Z SAT NOV 16 2024
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
PEREIRA
DAY 3
VALID 12Z SAT NOV 16 2024 - 12Z SUN NOV 17 2024
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
PEREIRA
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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