091
FXCA20 KWBC 151843
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
143 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 NOV 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN IN THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM
SARA. AT 15 UTC...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATED THAT
SARA CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 86.0W. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIHDS AT 45KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55KT. SARA WAS MOVING TO THE WEST OR AT 270 DEGREES
AND AT 04KT. SINCE SARA FORMED INSIDE A CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE...THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN AREAS FAR FROM
THE CENTER OF SARA...LEADING TO A WIDE AREA OF INDIRECT IMPACTS OF
THE SYSTEM IN ASSOCIATION WITH FEEDER BAND ACTIVITY AND
INTERACTIONS WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO. ANOTHER FACTOR HIGHLIGHTING EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS SARA'S SLOW MOVEMENT...AS THIS EXTENDS THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF PRECIPITATION.
REGARDING EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THROUGH EARLY SATURDEAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 200-300MM IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS AND ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA. ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HONDURAS EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE AND
SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO. IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IN COSTA RICA AND
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. IN THE GULF
OF FONSECA REGION EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FEEDER BAND CONVECTION
IN JAMAICA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS
AND FAR SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EAST GUATEMALA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 100-200MM. IN EASTERN EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHWEST NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...NORTHERN BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE IN COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN BELIZER AND QUINTANA
ROO...WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION. IN EL
SALVADOR...CENTRAL AND WESTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-10MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL/WEST
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN CHIAPAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND JUST NORTH
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO START WEAKENING DURING SATURDAY WHILE EXTENDING
ALONG 21N 60W...20N 63W...EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DURING SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WHILE IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI...ACTIVITY WILL
CLUSTER ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTURE WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-30MM.
A SECOND FRONT IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...INAGUA AND CENTRAL CUBA. BY SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE VI...PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CAYMAN ISLANDS. EXPECT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IN AREAS NORTH OF 20N WITH THIS FRONT GIVEN LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ONCE THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THE GREATER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI. THIS INCLUDES A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERITY GIVEN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND ENHANCEMENT BY THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. IN HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12
NONE
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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