629
FXUS01 KWBC 151954
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 16 2024 - 00Z MON NOV 18 2024
...NEXT STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS PRECIPITATION
REACHES EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY,
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN A FEW
PLACES BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING GREATER. THE WEST WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
STORMY PATTERN BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON BEFORE SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TYPICAL WESTWARD FACING
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND LOWER ELEVATION CASCADES WITH
1-2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE STORMY PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ROCKIES, ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SATURDAY, WITH THAT WARMTH PUSHING EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP
MANY LOCATIONS FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD DRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HIGHLIGHTING THESE REGIONS WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR THE SPREADING
OF WILDFIRES.
ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY PATTERN WILL BE ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING. BY LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY, THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE THREATS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
OTTO
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