844
FXUS01 KWBC 170800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 17 2024 - 12Z TUE NOV 19 2024
...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES, INCLUDING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION...
...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...
AN INLAND PROGRESSING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL AID IN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE CASCADES AND HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. MEANWHILE, A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDING SCATTERED FLOODING AND POWER OUTAGES, AS WELL AS HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER WEST TEXAS
AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THIS STORM A STRONG SURGE OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL AID IN CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS REGION IS
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. A DRAPED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR A CORRIDOR OF FOCUSED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN
ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN. AS THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIME THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD CREATE PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM SARA AS IT DISSIPATES OVER BELIZE TODAY. THIS
ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN EASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, WITH HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO SPLIT THE NATION IN HALF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE
WEST, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS REMAIN IN THE EAST. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST,
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SNELL
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