681
FXUS01 KWBC 172021
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
320 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VALID 00Z MON NOV 18 2024 - 00Z WED NOV 20 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA/CASCADES AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY, CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY, AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...
A FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD,
AND THE FRONT S EASTERN END WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT MONDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AND MOVES TO NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL CANADA BY TUESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION, A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST FRONT WILL CREATE COASTAL RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA/CASCADES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW ON TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN
MODERATE SNOW OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FURTHER, WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF COASTAL NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA,
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ALSO, ON MONDAY, AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST, HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
LIKEWISE, AS THE AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD, HEAVY
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE. MOREOVER,
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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