194
FXUS01 KWBC 180741
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VALID 12Z MON NOV 18 2024 - 12Z WED NOV 20 2024
...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL CREATE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS,
WHILE MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST
WITH HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, WHILE AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER TAKES AIM AT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN AND TWO SEPARATE STRONG STORM SYSTEMS
ARE SET TO IMPACT THE NATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
FIRST, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF WEST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY AND PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER, AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ALONG AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES BETWEEN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. THIS REGION IS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HOISTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY,
SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS,
LEADING TO LOWER VISIBILITY ON ROADWAYS. CURRENT SNOWFALL
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE GREATEST (70-90%)
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY,
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTERACTING WITH A SURGE OF
MOISTURE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD
CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WITH THE THREAT EXPANDING EAST
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS ARE
MOST LIKELY THROUGHOUT LOW-LYING AND URBAN REGIONS. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
AND NEVER DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS APPETIZER OF PRECIPITATION TO START THE
WORKWEEK WILL MAINLY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER, BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AID IN PRODUCING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
OREGON, WITH STRONG WINDS ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO KNOCK DOWN
TREES AND PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH AMOUNTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA RANGES AND CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
ATMOSPHERIC RIVE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE AND DIRECT
CONTINUOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THIS REGION, WHICH COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING AND INCREASE THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES. HEAVY
RAIN AND THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER HAZARDS FROM THIS ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EVENT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND MIDWEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS RAINFALL CHANCES ENTER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY.
SNELL
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