390
FXUS06 KWBC 182002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON NOVEMBER 18 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 - 28 2024
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. STRONG
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
BERING SEA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESSING OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BENEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE RAW, SHORT-TERM BIAS-CORRECTED, AND
REFORECAST TOOLS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, THERE IS
GENERALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH A TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW. MANY OF THE TOOLS
LEAN TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FROM SOME OF THE REFORECAST TOOLS AND DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF
ARE ABOVE-NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE IS FAVORED IN SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. IN HAWAII, TOOLS ARE IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
A GENERALLY WET PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THESE
REGIONS. A SECOND LOCAL MAXIMUM OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 40% WHERE
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FORECAST PROGRESSIVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, IN AREAS REMOVED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BENEATH
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS BRINGS INCREASED CONFIDENCE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - DEC 02, 2024
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. MEANWHILE, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BROAD
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA DURING
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD HELPING TO DRIVE COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD DURING WEEK-2. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHEAST, INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BROAD INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, AND WEST
COAST REGIONS. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED
FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN
MAINLAND. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES ARE FAVORED IN WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. IN THE WESTERN CONUS, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND BRINGS ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES BACK TO THE CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
COASTS. IN THE EAST, ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHERE RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. SURROUNDING THIS
REGION, GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MANY OF THE FORECAST TOOLS IS OFFSET BY REDUCED ANOMALIES IN
THE HEIGHT PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19941112 - 19731121 - 20031117 - 19611121 - 19611202
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19941111 - 19731120 - 19731125 - 20031116 - 19611119
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 - 28 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - DEC 02, 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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