338
FXCA20 KWBC 261924
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 NOV 2024 AT 1900 UTC: A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH
IS INTERACTING WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO A LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA. SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION REFORMING IN AREAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD DECREASE ITS IMPACTS ON ENHANCING DYNAMICS
FOR ASCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE PERSISTENCE
OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND THE TAKE OVER OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE
PROCESSES IN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE POTENTIALLY LARGEST AMOUNTS
IN JAMAICA...WHERE EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. IN
THE HAITIAN PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE
IN HSIPANIOLA AND IN SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT MXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN
THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FAR SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT MODELS ARE VERY
CONFIDENT ABOUT STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
REMAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN JAMAICA AND
SOUTHWEST HAITI. IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
POTENTIAL MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EASTERN JAMAICA WHILE ALONG
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WET CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. THE CIRCULATION IS FAVORING THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH TO ENTER PANAMA AND STIMULATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
FURTHERMORE...NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
IS TRANSPORTING A BROAD AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 55MM INTO COMPLEX TERRAIN IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS
WILL ALSO STIMULATE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE RESPECTIVE CARIBBEAN
BASINS. THE CIRCULATION WILL ALSO STIMULATE ENHANCED MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
FAVOR MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAU EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS CLUSTERING IN EAST
COSTA RICA AND NORTHWEST PANAMA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.
ELSEWHERE IN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE IN NORTHERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM DEVELOPING IN WEST PANAMA AND
FAR SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...WHILE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF COSTA
RICA AND BOCAS DEL TORO...AS WELL AS WESTERN COLOMBIA AND
SOUTHEAST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHERN PANAMA AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
NORTHERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHILE DIURNAL CONVECTION FAVORS
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
AN UPPER LOW IS RETROGRADING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FAR
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO ON TUESDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW HAS ORGANIZED A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER IN
THE CYCLE...AS IT PROPAGATES WESTWARD. THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN BARBADOS...WHILE IN THE REST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAAXIMA OF 25-50MM DEVELOPING FROM BARBADOS AND
SAINT VINCENT NORTH INTO GUADELOUPE...WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A POTENT POLAR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHEAST
MEXICO. LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS - BARBADOS)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA/MB - BRAZIL)
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