590
FXCA20 KWBC 291836
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 NOV 2024 AT 1730 UTC: A SURFACE FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...24N
95. WEST OF THIS AREA...EXPECT A NORTES WIND EVENT AND A WEAKENING
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ. BY SATURDAY
EVENING...EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO 25N 96W OR OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
TAMAULIPAS. BY SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE RIO BRAVO/SOUTH
TEXAS. ON FRIDAY...THE NORTES EVENT IN THE TAIL OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND CHIVELA PASS REGION.
THIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA UNDER 15MM. ON SATURDAY...FRONTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA UNDER
15MM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...WHILE INSHORE FLOW IN NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON
WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
A PROCESS OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
DUE TO DIFFERENT PROCESSES. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS WITH MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WHICH COULD
EXTEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A SHEAR LINE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...AND TO PROVIDE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. BY THE EVENING IT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS. BY
SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT IT TO REORGANIZE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
JAMAICA...SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA AND INTO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA. IN
TERMS OF DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA WHERE
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE CYCLONIC TIER OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON SATURDAY...THE LARGEST ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SHEAR LINE. AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES
NORTHERN HONDURAS...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 50MM
ARE EXPECTED AND TERRAIN INTERACTIONS PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION...EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW IN NORTHERN HONDURAS
WILL FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM...WHILE IN NORTHEAST
COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA THE SHEAR LINE FAVORS MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. IN EAST NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. NOTE THAT A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY IN NORTHERN HONDURAS ON MONDAY DUE TO A LARGE SCALE
STRENGTHENING OF NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS POSES THE
POTENTIAL OF MAXIMA OF 100-200MM/DAY.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
AMERICA...GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER CONVERGENT MJO
CONDITIONS. MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLUSTER IN TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA...AND ALONG THE ITCZ/NET FORECAST
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.
STILL...EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER THE 15-25MM/DAY RANGE.
WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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