415
FXCA20 KWBC 021902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EST MON DEC 02 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 DEC 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS
CURRENTLY IN A CONVERGENT PHASE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN
ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL JET OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH THE EXIT REGION AT AROUND 04N AND 85W...JUST
WEST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET COULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...AND BEGINS
TO WEAKEN AS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS
THE PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDING INTO TURKS AND
CAICOS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...AND INTO THE WEST
CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE DIVERGENT ENTRANCE OVER NORTH
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WILL FAVOR SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE
REGION...WHILE STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN
PORTION OF NICARAGUA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM EAST
HONDURAS AND EAST NICARAGUA. IN THE COSTA RICA...THE PRESENCE OF
LARGE AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHERE THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN NORTH HONDURAS
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE REGION CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THE NORTHERN
REGION. SIMILAR AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...WEST COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. THE PREFRONTRAL SHEAR
LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN JAMAICA...WHILE TURKS AND
CAICOS...EAST CUBA...AND WEST HAITI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN
BELOW 20MM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SHOW A GENERAL DRYING
TREND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND LIMIT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS IN TURN
WILL LIMIT THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCH INTO TURKS AND CAICOS...INTO EXTREME EAST CUBA...AND JUST
WEST OF JAMAICA...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BY TUESDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THE
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JETS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST OF THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL
AMERICA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA...THE GOLFO DE HONDURAS REGION...AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND SHEAR LINE...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM IN TURKS
AND CAICOS...CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA. WHILE AMOUNTS BELOW 15MM
ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. ON
WEDNESDAY...A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE PROPAGATES SLIGHTLY EAST
IN THE MONA PASSAGE...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS DRIER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST AND THE
NORTH...WHILE A SUBSIDENT PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE ENHANCED UPPER RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION
WILL TAKE PLACE WHERE THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONVERGE DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NORTH COSTA
RICA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE PRESENCE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN JAMAICA...NORTH HAITI...AND WEST
CUBA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OTHER REGIONS THAT WILL SEE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE THE GOLFO DE HONDURAS REGION...AND
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE SHEAR LINE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA AND MEXICO.
IN MEXICO...THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE COUNTRY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE PRESENCE OF
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OFFSHORE TAMAULIPAS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF SHORE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND
ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...MOISTURE IS PRESENT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION...WHILE THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT IS DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. INTERACTIONS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GUIANAS
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH VENEZUELA AND THE
GUIANAS AS THE ITCZ/NET IS LOCATED IN THE REGION.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
35MM...AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
AMAZON REGION. IN WESTERN COLOMBIA...THE PRESENCE OF THE
PANAMANIAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMA IN WEST COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 45MM ON MONDAY...DECREASE ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
25MM...AND COULD REMAIN BELOW 35MM ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AMOUNTS.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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