403
FXCA20 KWBC 032049
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EST TUE DEC 03 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 DEC 2024 AT 2100 UTC:
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE EXTEND OF THE
CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN IS SEEN WHERE DEEP
PRECIPITATION IS NOT AS FAVORED...AND REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE TO
CERTAIN REGIONS...SUCH AS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE PASSING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTH
AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST PARTIALLY WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...BUT THE EXTENT OF THIS ASSISTANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD.
THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED INTO TURKS AND CAICOS...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND INTO
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA WHERE IT TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SHEAR
LINE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...EAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DUE TO THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE WEST
CARIBBEAN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN NORTHEAST COSTA RICA.
EAST NICARAGUA AND THE SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. SIMILAR MOIST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AND NORTH HAITI
WHERE MAXIMA COULD REACH 20-45MM LOCALLY. THE GULF OF FONSECA
REGION MAY SEE A LESSER DEGREE OF THE CONVERGENCE AS MAXIMA MAY
REACH AROUND 20-45MM. THE LOW LEVEL JETS ARE EXPECTED OVER PANAMA
AS WELL WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE TROPICAL
REGION. MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH PANAMA REGION
AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND INTO HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. THE SHEAR LINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EXTEND NEAR THE SAN
ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS. HOWEVER A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MODERATE FROM NORTHEAST HONDURAS TO NORTHEAST COSTA
RICA....WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTH HISPANIOLA AS MOIST ONSHORE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. JAMAICA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. A DECREASE OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA REGION IS EXPECTED WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN
BELOW 25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST
CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED INTO
THE GOLF OF FONSECA REGION...INTO EAST CUBA...AND TURKS AND CAICOS
AND INAGUA-THE BAHAMAS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA...NEARING NORTH HONDURAS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT EXPECTED IN NORTH HONDURAS
WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION AND MAXIMA COULD REACH
50-100MM. IN EXTREME EAST CUBA AND NORTHWEST HAITI...AS WELL AS
JAMAICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WIND
CAP IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE
REGION.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION. OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AMAZON RIVER BASIN
AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH PERU...AND WEST COLOMBIA/ECUADOR.
MOISTURE OVER THE GUIANAS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVER THE FORECAST REGION. MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW INTO AMAPA AND FRENCH GUIANA CAN FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASED EASTERLY
ONSHORE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE ON
THURSDAY...WHERE AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE PRESENCE
OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA...AND SOUTH
GUYANA...WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTH
VENEZUELA...AND NORTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHERE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN WESTERN COLOMBIA...THE
PANAMANIAN TROUGH IS ACTIVE OVER PANAMA AND WEST OF
COLOMBIA...WHERE THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FAVORING MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION 20-45MM/DAY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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