454
FXCA20 KWBC 041931
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EST WED DEC 04 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 DEC 2024 AT 1940 UTC:
OVER THE NORTH CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO CUBA...AND THE GREATER ANTILLES.
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING ON WEDNESDAY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...SOUTH MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTH SOUTH
AMERICA. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO INTERFERE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EXTENDS
INTO NICARAGUA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND NEAR THE SAN
ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ISLANDS IN THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA. DUE TO
THE CONVERGENT CONDITIONS OF THE MJO DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE CAN ENHANCE CONVECTION WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE. THE HEAVIER TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS MEANDERING NORTHWARD FROM
TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST CUBA...AND INTO NORTH HONDURAS WHERE IT
BEGINS TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE
ALSO MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
JAMAICA...WHERE MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TO THE
EAST...THE PRESENCE OF MOIST PLUMES ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND PROPAGATE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ON FRIDAY. THESE MOIST PLUMES ARE INHIBITED FROM DEEPER CONVECTION
DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SO
MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND BELOW 35MM IN THE ABC ISLANDS AND
EXTREME NORTH VENEZUELA. TO THE NORTH...A FAST MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS INTO NORTH
MEXICO...WHERE THE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENTERING
THE REGION OF TAMAULIPAS AND COAHUILA...WHERE THEY CAN EXPECT A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND
MAXIMA BELOW 20MM ON BOTH DAYS. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTH UNITED STATES EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH BAHAMAS...THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND ENTERS THROUGH TEXAS. THE SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING OVER TURKS AND CAICOS...CUBA...AND THE WEST
CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE REMAINS PRESENT OVER HISPANIOLA.
DUE TO THE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS FAVORING OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE
GOLF OF HONDURAS REGION...THE AREA CAN EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY. IN SOUTH BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND THE SHEAR LINE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHEAR LINE...NORTH
COSTA RICA AND SOUTH NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN NORTH HISPANIOLA. EAST HONDURAS...EAST NICARAGUA...AND JAMAICA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...NORTH HONDURAS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE EXTREME EAST HONDURAS AND EAST
NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE SOUTH BAHAMAS...TURKS
AND CAICOS...NORTH HISPANIOLA...EAST CUBA...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON FRIDAY...THE GOLF OF HONDURAS REGION CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SOUTH BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM EAST HONDURAS THROUGH
EAST NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM....THE JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH MEANDERS OVER THE
REGION. THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA WHERE VENTILATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
COLOMBIA...AND NORTH BRASIL...EXTENDING INTO THE GUIANAS...AND
NORTH PERU/WEST ECUADOR ON WEDNESDAY. AN INDUCED TROUGH
PROPAGATING OVER NORTH BRASIL IS EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL FORECAST REGION AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETS IN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...AND THE GUIANAS
ARE TRENDING TO DRIER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. THE PRESENCE OF
THE ITCZ ENTERING FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA-BRASIL WILL FAVOR
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MODERATE PRECIPITATION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY...AMAZONAS-BRASIL TO SOUTH COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM WITH HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS. WEST COLOMBIA AND AMAPA-BRASIL
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...FROM SOUTH
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA...INTO AMAZONAS-BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WITH A FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. PARA-BRASIL AND EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
FRIDAY...AMAPA...FRENCH GUIANA...AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND WEST PARA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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