692
FXCA20 KWBC 051927
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EST THU DEC 05 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 DEC 2024 AT 1930 UTC:
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO...FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS...AND NORTH SOUTH AMERICA. THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE OVER
SONORA...AND CHIHUAHUA. HOWEVER LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT
FAVOR MUCH PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. TO THE EAST IN
COAHUILA...NUEVO LEON...AND TAMAULIPAS...EXPECT THE MOIST AIR FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERACT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND
THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT. ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY FROM CHIHUAHUA TO TAMAULIPAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD
SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN NORTH COAHUILA ON FRIDAY...WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE PRESENT ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEAST
MEXICO. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
MEXICO TO SEE AMOUNTS BELOW 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN REGIONS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTH BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...INTO
REGIONS OF CUBA...AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST HONDURAS. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS PRESENT INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHEN
IT WILL WEAKEN AND BE TRAILED BEHIND ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS...NORTH CUBA...AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY EVENING. A SHEAR LINE REMAINS
PRESENT OVER HISPANIOLA AND NEAR JAMAICA AS WELL FAVORING
PRECIPITATION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. BY SATURDAY...A
SECONDARY SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO. ON
FRIDAY...EAST CUBA...JAMAICA...AND NORTH HAITI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON FRIDAY...EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE A
SLIGHT DECREASE IS EXPECTED IN TURKS AND CAICOS...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE PERSISTENT PRESENCE OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
INTERACTING WITH THE OROGRAPHY OF NORTH HONDURAS WILL FAVOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. VENTILATION
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM A WEAK JET OVER THE YUCATAN AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES IS PRESENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN
HONDURAS. SIMILARLY...IN EAST NICARAGUA...MODERATE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN NORTH HONDURAS...WHILE EAST
NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON FRIDAY...NORTH HONDURAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS...WHILE
NORTHEAST HONDURAS INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS...TO NORTH COSTA RICA
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. NORTHEAST COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...NORTH HONDURAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE EAST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN...THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT
MOIST PLUMES AND TROUGHS TO ENTER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION...HOWEVER THESE
TROUGHS CAN FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WITH IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF REGIONS IN NORTH BRASIL AND THE GUIANAS ALONG THE
ITCZ/NET. NOCTURNAL LLJ ARE FAVORING A DRYING TREND IN PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND GUYANA...YET MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
SOUTH VENEZUELA AND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VENTILATION
DUE TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IN SOUTH AMERICA. DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO REGIONS OF WEST COLOMBIA AND AMAPA/FRENCH
GUIANA...HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ON THURSDAY...WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM NORTH
BRASIL TO SOUTH COLOMBIA/NORTH PERU EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
FRIDAY...WEST COLOMBIA AND AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE NORTH BRASIL AND ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE CONVERGING IN WEST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL/NORTH PERU...AND THE DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER TOTALS
IN WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND NORTH PERU. WEST COLOMBIA...EAST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...PARA...AND AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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