399
FXCA20 KWBC 061854
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 DEC 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
NOTE: ALL TROPICAL DESK PRODUCTS WILL BE PAUSED UNTIL MONDAY
DECEMBER 16TH. APOLOGIES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
ON FRIDAY...THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS SEEING TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS...NEARING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS
STRENGTHENING...FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS THEY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED THROUGH
TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTH BAHAMAS...EAST CUBA...AND INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS REGION. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ENTERING
TAMAULIPAS...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NUEVO LEON TO NORTH
CHIHUAHUA. DUE TO THE LOW AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN MEXICO
AND THE NORTH BAHAMAS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION AND WITH THE PROPAGATION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
HIGHER AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE THE INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION...ENHANCED BY THE SUBSIDENT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL JET OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON FRIDAY...HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS WITH MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...AND
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FROM NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND THE ALONG
THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL REGIONS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTH COSTA
RICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. EAST CUBA...TURKS AND
CAICOS...INAGUA-THE BAHAMAS...AND JAMAICA...EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...A SMALLER PORTION OF NORTHWEST HONDURAS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE THE REST OF NORTH HONDURAS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NORTH HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND A SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. NORTHEAST
HONDURAS COULD SEE A DECREASE WITH AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM. NORTH
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN...MOIST TROUGHS ARE PROPAGATING IN
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND WILL BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO/VI....AS WELL
AS THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
ABC ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE-LIKE TROUGH ENTERS THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH HIGHER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...IT IS POSSIBLE THE ISLANDS MIGHT SEE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION INTO THE ABC ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...THE LESSER
ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE PUERTO RICO/VI...THE
ABC ISLANDS...AND NORTH VENEZUELAN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW
15MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS DOMINATING OVER THE
CONTINENT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EAST BRASIL IS
RETROGRADING WEST OVER BRASIL OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ FROM THE GUIANAS...AND NORTH BRASIL...THESE
REGIONS CAN EXPECT VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BOLIVIAN HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL BRASIL TO WEST BRASIL/NORTH PERU BY
SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JETS OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE TO NORTH
PERU AND WEST BRASIL...FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
REGION. IN WEST COLOMBIA...THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST
WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. MODERATE PRECIPITATION
OF 20-45MM ARE POSSIBLE EVERYDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. ON FRIDAY...WEST AMAZONAS/NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM AMAPA TO EAST AMAZONAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...WEST AMAZONAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WHILE EAST AMAZONAS AND PARA...AND AMAPA CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SUNDAY...MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTH PERU AND WEST AMAZONAS...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTH BRASIL. AMAPA AND NORTH PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM.
EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
NONE
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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