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FXUS06 KWBC 062038
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI DECEMBER 06 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 12 - 16 2024
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A CHANGE IN THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
THEN. BUT THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, CONTINUED
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY, AND RAW TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL
MODEL OUTPUT SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH THE STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED TOOLS.
TELECONNECTIONS ON THE PREDOMINANT FEATURES (A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC,
ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC, AND A THIRD NORTH OF ALASKA) ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
AND DON’T MATCH UP VERY WELL WITH THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS, THOUGH THEY ARE NOT 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE LIKE EARLIER
THIS WEEK.
TODAY’S MODELS MAINTAIN THE STRONG NORTH ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF
THE CONTIGUOUS STATES (CONUS). THIS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY’S WEEK-2 HEIGHT
FIELD. THE MODELS ALSO GENERALLY AGREE ON A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, WITH AN AXIS NORTH OF HAWAII. THIS FEATURE IS WEAKER
THAN THE NORTH ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE, BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA TOWARD THE NORTH POLE. ALONG THIS
AXIS, THERE IS ANOTHER 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MAXIMUM AT 80-85 DEGREES N, DEEP
INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. MODELS SHOW THE LARGEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE RANGING FROM +25 TO +35 DM WHILE THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
ARCTIC CIRCLE MID-LEVEL ANOMALIES TOP OUT AT +10 TO +15 DM (SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS) MEAN AND THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL).
TELECONNECTIONS ON THE NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE WOULD BE FAVORED, BUT ARE
CONSIDERABLY AT ODDS WITH OTHER STATISTICAL TOOLS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT.
THIS IS NOT TOO SURPRISING DURING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL REGIME, BUT
IT MAKES THE TELECONNECTION PATTERN UNHELPFUL.
THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF FEATURES OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH ASSOCIATED DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE WEAK TO
MODERATE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA HAS VANISHED FROM THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) MEAN, WHICH PLACES AN AXIS OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES THERE. IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH THE GEFS, ECENS MEAN, AND OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN
MODEL ALL SHOWING A -6 TO -9 DM 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY JUST OFF THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON OR BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED SINCE IT’S DEPICTED
IN A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND BETTER FITS THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE
FEATURES FARTHER TO THE WEST AND EAST. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS +6 TO
+9 DM ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE BIGGEST
ANOMALIES NEAR NEW ENGLAND, AND SLIGHTLY LESSER ANOMALIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH KEEPS THIS AIR MASS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MODERATE AND BE EJECTED EASTWARD OUT OF THE CONUS, BUT THE
FORECAST STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY HOLD IT IN PLACE LONGER
THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. TO WIT, ODDS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
5-DAY PERIOD AS A WHOLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
REGIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NORTHERNMOST NEW ENGLAND, UNDER MORE PRONOUNCED
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF THE STRONG NORTH ATLANTIC
RIDGE, MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL. FARTHER WEST, BUILDING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD ENGENDER WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CONUS, FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST STATES. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOME
ADJACENT AREAS, EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREAT PLAINS. CHANCES
FOR WARM WEATHER DROP OFF FARTHER WEST, CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
ALASKA, WITH THE CHANCES FOR WARMTH DECLINING ALONG WITH THE HEIGHT ANOMALY
FIELD OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ACROSS HAWAII, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH, THE CONSOLIDATION IS VERY
BULLISH FOR WARMTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING 5-DAY
MEAN TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM NORMAL. THE FORECAST BASICALLY
REFLECTS THE CONSOLIDATION, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED ODDS DUE TO THE SIGNAL IN
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION, SO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR DRIER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER COVER THE LENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND PART OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST REGION. SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ANTICIPATED IN
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, REMOVED FROM ANY MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OR MOISTURE INFLUX.
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS, MOST TOOLS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A STORM SYSTEM
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FORMING THAT SHOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM MAY TAP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICS, WHICH WOULD FURTHER INCREASE THE ODDS FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WEATHER ALONG THIS ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UPSTREAM FROM THE EXPECTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH LYING JUST
OFF THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS OR SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN
ACROSS ALASKA SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PER MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS DERIVED FROM THE ENSEMBLES, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW OFF PULLING MOISTURE IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. NEAR HAWAII,
500-HPA HEIGHTS DROP FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY WHERE HEIGHTS ARE
CLOSER TO NORMAL, SPECIFICALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ONCE AGAIN,
FOR OROGRAPHIC REASONS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW NORMAL, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR MEAN PATTERN AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND CONSISTENT LARGE-SCALE OUTPUT
FROM THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF FORECAST ANOMALIES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE, CONTINUED RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES, THE LACK OF USEFUL
TELECONNECTIONS, AND UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO A TRANSITIONAL MID-LEVEL REGIME.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 20 2024
THE MODELS ARE A BIT LESS CONSISTENT ON THE BROAD-SCALE PATTERN FOR WEEK-2, BUT
ALL FEATURE DECLINING 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AS POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH A FLAT BUT
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RIDGE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND SHOWS MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER +9 DM FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE COAST, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST UNDER +12 TO +14 DM HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE 7-DAY PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
IN CONTRAST, THERE IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLVING PATTERN FARTHER
WEST, FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWARD
ACROSS ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA RETROGRADING, WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPECTED OVER
AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES STRETCHING
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OR ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS ESSENTIALLY SEVERS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TO NEAR
THE NORTH POLE, LEAVING A BROAD, FLAT RIDGE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, AND
A SEPARATE AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS RETROGRESSION AND
THE SEVERING OF THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE. THE 6Z GEFS CAME IN MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE RETROGRADING TROUGH, AND SHOWS NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REACHING
AS FAR EAST AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECENS AND CMCE MEANS RESTRICT
SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FARTHER WEST, AND PLOT +3 TO +6 DM 500-HPA ANOMALIES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE POTENT NORTH ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN, TELECONNECTIONS DON’T PROVIDE MUCH GUIDANCE, AND THERE’S NO
OBVIOUS REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER, SO A COMPROMISE IS
DEPICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND, WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REACHING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, BUT NOT INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA OR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE BROAD SWATH OF ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FAVORS WIDESPREAD
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH THE MOST ENHANCED ODDS (ABOVE
70 PERCENT) NEAR THE LARGEST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR WARMTH
ARE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHERE THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD. FARTHER WEST, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE DROPPING ACROSS
ALASKA, BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WOULD FAVOR LOW SURFACE PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS THAT SHOULD PULL MILD AIR FROM THE PACIFIC INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THE FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HAWAII SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
CLOSEST TO THE LARGEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS SIMILAR TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY
PERIOD, BUT WITH LESS CONSISTENT TOOLS THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, FAVORING DIRER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR
SURPLUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION, WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS. FARTHER
WEST, THE NATURE OF ANY TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SHOULD STILL
INCREASE THE ODDS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE, CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FAVORS CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. MEANWHILE, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ODDS FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY BE WANING ACROSS HAWAII, THOUGH
FAVORABLE SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY STILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE, PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW NORMAL, 2 OUT OF 5. DECENT
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A RETROGRADING OR DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC, SOME
AREAS OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RAW AND THE STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, WEAK PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FIELDS IN THE
REFORECAST TOOLS, AND UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO A TRANSITIONAL MID-LEVEL
PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20021126 - 19851220 - 19561125 - 20041215 - 19631201
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20021128 - 19561126 - 19851219 - 19891203 - 19881207
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 12 - 16 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 20 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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