434  
FXCA20 KWBC 161956  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
255 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024  
 
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 DEC 2024 AT 1900 UTC:  
 
HE CONVERGENCE PHASES OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) ARE  
ANTICIPATED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEANâ€LEADING TO A PREDOMINANTLY  
DRY PERIOD.  
 
CURRENTLY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS GENERATING STRONG  
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ATLANTIC  
OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST CUBA TO NORTHWEST  
JAMAICA...WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO ...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE REGION STARTING  
ON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE  
AMERICAN CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO  
NORTHERN COHUILA AND NUEVO LEON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM  
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 - 25MM BY THURSDAY MORNING  
IN EASTERN MEXICO (TAUMALIPAS AND VERACRUZ).  
 
IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION STARTING  
ON THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... ENHANCED  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHER WILL  
ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION STARTING ON TUESDAY  
EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  
 
IN THE CARIBBEAN ... A TROUGH MOVING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ON  
TUESDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THE GREATER  
ANTILLES... SPECIFICALLY FOR PUERTO RICO ... VIRGIN ISLANDS ...AND  
THE NORTHERN EXTREMES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECTED TO PRODUCE  
A MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION OF 15-25 MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
 
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS IN  
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...  
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE INTERIOR OF  
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN  
THIS REGION WITH MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 - 25MM.  
 
IN CENTRAL AMERICA ... A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS...  
EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... IS FORECAST TO BRING MAXIMUM  
PRECIPITATION OF 15-25 MM IN THOSE AREAS BY TUESDAY.  
 
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA... FLOW PARALLEL TO THE ANDES IN EASTERN  
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS TODAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ... WHEN THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE  
SOUTHERLY. BY THURSDAY ... MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN FAR EASTERN  
COLOMBIA... NORTHWESTERN BRAZIL ... AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA WILL  
ASSIST IN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE  
...THE NET/ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION PATTERN  
IN THE GUYANAS THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON TUESDAY ...  
LOCALIZED RAINFALL MAXIMUMS OF 20-40 MM ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN  
PERU AND EASTERN ECUADOR... WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM OF 20-30 MM  
ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN BRAZIL.  
 
TINOCO...(WPC)  
LEDESMA... (WPC)  
 

 
 
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