887
FXCA20 KWBC 171507
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1006 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 17 DEC 2024 AT 1500 UTC:
THE CONVERGENCE PHASES OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OVER THE
TROPICAL BASIN.
BY WEDNESDAY...
IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN COAHUILA AND NUEVO
LEON WILL FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING IN
BELIZE...EASTERN MEXICO...INCLUDING TAMAULIPAS... VERACRUZ AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS GENERATING STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CUBA.
OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...A ZONAL SPEED DIVERGENCE... ALONG
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW... WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES... A MAXIMUM
PRECIPITATION OF 15-25 MM IS EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COULD GENERATE SOME COASTAL
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...FLOW PARALLEL TO THE ANDES IN EASTERN
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR... COMBINED WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DIFFLUENCE AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE REGION... WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON REACHING 15-20 MM. THE NORTHERN PART OF BRAZIL CAN
EXPECT MAXIMUMS OF 15-25 MM. THE NET/ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE GUIANAS... WITH MAXIMUMS
OF 15 MM OVER GUYANA AND SURINAME... AND 15-30 MM OVER FRENCH
GUIANA.
BY THURSDAY...
IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO...AS MENTIONED ABOVE... THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN
COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON WILL FAVOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF
15-25 MM IN EASTERN MEXICO (TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ).
IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN...IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS
REGION...WITH MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15-25 MM IN THE GREATER
ANTILLES.
IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION STARTING
ON THURSDAY MORNING.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE...COULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWEST HONDURAS AND BELIZE. A MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION OF 15-25 MM
IS EXPECTED.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN FAR EASTERN
COLOMBIA...NORTHWESTERN BRAZIL...AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA WILL
ASSIST IN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THIS REGION.
MEANWHILE..THE NET/ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS IN THE GUIANAS... WITH MAXIMUM OF 15-25 MM.
BY FRIDAY ...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO VERACRUZ AND WEAKENING IN THIS REGION. ENHANCED NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ WILL
INDUCE SOME MOISTURE POOLING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 15 -
20MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND TABASCO.
IN THE CARIBBEAN ... THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION ...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ... 500HPA VORTICITY ADVECTION ...
AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE IN MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WITH MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 - 25MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ... AN INDUCED TROUGH FROM
AFOREMENTIONED MID ATLANTIC LOW AND THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL
ENHANCE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES ... THUS INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ... THE PANAMIAN LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE IN MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 20 - 45MM. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA ... DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO FROM THE NORTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL COLOMBIA WILL HELP POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE COLOMBIA ...
VENEZUELA ... BRAZIL BORDER. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 20 -
35MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA ... WHERE SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND A
NEARBY TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
IN THE REGION ... WHERE VALUES MAY RANGE FROM 15 - 25MM.
TINOCO...(WPC)
LEDESMA... (WPC)
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