834
FXSA20 KWBC 172035
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 17 DEC 2024 AT 2030 UTC:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...CAUSING STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN CHILE...NORTHERN ARGENTINA...AND SOUTHERN BRASIL. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...RESULTING IN WINDS EXCEEDING 100 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN
CHILE AND ARGENTINA. IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT BUT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CHILE AND ARGENTINA. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO
THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA
AND BRINGING STRONG VORTICITY. ANOTHER BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...SUPPORTING
RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS IN THESE AREAS. MID LEVELS ACROSS TROPICAL
SOUTH AMERICA HAVE LIGHTER WINDS UNDER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA TODAY. SEVERAL TROUGHS AND AREAS OF CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL ARGENTINA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND
THEN OVER EASTERN BOLIVIA INTO PARAGUAY AND SOUTHERN BRASIL ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH EACH PASSING DAY FROM NORTHERN ARGENTINA TO PARAGUAY AND
NEARBY AREAS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER ISOLATED
AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 70MM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL ARGENTINA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BOLIVIA INTO PARAGUAY AND SOUTHERN
BRASIL COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 25 TO 80 MM...WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS LIKELY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
ISOLATED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER AND STRONG CONVECTION IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. MODEST AND MORE TYPICAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO HAVE
MAX VALUES BETWEEN 15-35MM EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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