922
FXCA20 KWBC 191938
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 DEC 2024 AT 20 UTC
TWO DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TROPICAL REGION THESE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE FIRST FEATURE IS A
WEAKENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ...
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH EACH PASSING
DAY ... PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE GREATER ANTILLESTHROUGH THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
AN AREA OF INTEREST IS NORTHERN HONDURAS ... BELIZE ... AND THE
EASTERN YUCATAN. ONGOING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ... COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND A NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH†WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DAILY ... WITH HIGHEST MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 25 -
50MM ON SUNDAY. EXPECT COASTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN
COAST ... WHICH MAY INTRUDE FARTHER INLAND AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 15 - 25MM.
IN THE BOCAS DE TORO ... LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THOUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE CARIBBEAN ... THE
PERSISTENT FLOW WILL ASSIST WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST.
IN PANAMA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA ... A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ... ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THIS REGION. IN THE COLOMBIAN ANDES REGION ... NORTHERLY FLOW
COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL OROGRAPHY WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ... WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 - 25MM EXPECTED.
IN NORTHERN PERU ... CURRENTLY ... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ASSIST IN ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF
15 - 20MM LIKELY. IN THE GUIANAS ... UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE
SOUTH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ... WITH MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF
15 - 25MM EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
IN EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ... A LOW-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DOMINATING THE WIND REGIME. ENHANCED
EASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN TAUMALIPAS AND NORTHERN VERACRUZ WILL
ASSIST IN THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
... WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ...
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AND SO WILL PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
IN THE BAHAMAS ... A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SPANNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ... COOLER MID AND UPPER LEVELS ... AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL HELP IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE BAHAMAS.
IN THE CARIBBEAN ... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE REGION. DAILY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
TINOCO...(WPC)
ALAMO...(WPC)
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