513
FXCA20 KWBC 241659
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 DEC 2024 AT 1700 UTC:
ON TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND HAS ITS BASE SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO. TO THE
EAST...A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AND EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHERE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO IS ENHANCING AN
UPPER JET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE INTERACTIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BU THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BLOCK THIS TROUGH...AND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH. THESE WILL PROVIDE
VENTILATION OVER REGIONS OF THE YUCATAN...CUBA...AND INTO THE
SOUTH BAHAMAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND THEIR REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS OVER THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
ADDITIONALLY...A MOIST POOL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
TO CONVERGE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND SOUTH OF CUBA...WHICH CAN
PROVIDE THE MOISTURE FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CUBA AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL SEE THE INCREASE OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR CUBA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS/JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHERE THEY ARE CONVERGING ALONG THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. DUE TO THE
LOWERING OF PRESSURES FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN...THE
ITCZ IS RESPONDING BY NEARING THE OSA AND AZUERO PENINSULAS IN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM OSA COSTA RICA TO THE AZUERO
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TO THE SOUTH IN WEST
COLOMBIA...THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE
OF THE ITCZ AND THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN WEST COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE ITCZ/NET AND THE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL
FAVOR LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ECUADOR...NORTH PERU...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL
WILL CONVERGE AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. BY
THURSDAY...AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NORTH PERU AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL TRIGGER MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH PERU INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE REGION
AND HAS VENTILATION ALOFT FROM THE DIFFLUENCE OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page