711
FXUS01 KWBC 241955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
VALID 00Z WED DEC 25 2024 - 00Z FRI DEC 27 2024
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CHRISTMAS
DAY...
...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THURSDAY...
...RELATIVELY MILD, AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY CHRISTMAS DAY...
IT WILL BE A TALE OF TWO WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THE COUNTRY HEADING
THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, AS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WHILE
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. IN THE WEST, MODERATE TO HEAVY
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CALIFORNIA THOUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AS A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, WITH HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE
SIERRA. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE SIERRA. THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES EASTWARD, WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
LIGHT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN AND HEAVY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGES, AND WINTER STORM WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CASCADES SOUTH THROUGH THE MT. SHASTA
REGION IN CALIFORNIA FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 1-2 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INLAND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY BRINGING
MORE LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS OF 4-8 INCHES, LOCALLY 12"+, ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MANY
RANGES OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL
SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
TO THE EAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES/SURFACE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AHEAD OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WEAKEN CHRISTMAS DAY AS A
SUPPORTING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION, WHICH FORTUNATELY
MEANS MORE SCATTERED CHANCES OF STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEN, BY EARLY THURSDAY, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE LINGERING JUST ALONG THE COAST WILL
QUICKLY RETURN BACK NORTHWARD OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX, LEADING TO A RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) ISSUED FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION, WIDESPREAD STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO ONCE AGAIN BRING THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AS
WELL.
ELSEWHERE, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES-WISE THROUGH CHRISTMAS, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
ANOMALIES OF 5-15 DEGREES MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.
FORECAST HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
30S AND 40S FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC; THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS; THE 50S AND 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST; AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, TEXAS, AND FLORIDA.
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