484
FXUS01 KWBC 250747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EST WED DEC 25 2024
VALID 12Z WED DEC 25 2024 - 12Z FRI DEC 27 2024
...CONTINUED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR EASTERN TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...
...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE VERY ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE WEATHER HEADLINES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION, STEADY
RAINFALL REACHES THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS BY MIDDAY
CHRISTMAS, AND THEN REACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EVENING.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTERSECTS THE COASTAL TERRAIN, WITH PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS, AND POTENTIALLY MORE ON THE WEST FACING
SLOPES, AND THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES OF FLOODING WHERE RAINFALL
RATES ARE HIGHEST. ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, THERE
WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED BREAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MANY OF THE SAME AREAS, BRINGING
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AND THE COASTAL WATERS GIVEN A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH THESE STORM SYSTEMS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND ROUND, WITH THE CASCADES
GETTING HAMMERED WITH HEAVY SNOW ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 FEET, AND
LIGHTER SNOWS HEADING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL ALSO GET NOTEWORTHY SNOWFALL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON AND INTO IDAHO.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH A LOITERING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS AND A
MEANDERING STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN
GULF, HERALDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
APPEAR TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY, AND THEREFORE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLATEX REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE WHERE THESE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM
EASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND MOST OF THE EAST
COAST STATES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOTH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER COLD GROUND. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, FORECAST HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND THURSDAY
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC; THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS, AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE OHIO
VALLEY; THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE MID-SOUTH AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
STATES; AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, TEXAS, AND FLORIDA.
HAMRICK
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