101
FXCA20 KWBC 261948
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST THU DEC 26 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 DEC 2024 AT 2000 UTC
THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
THE START OF THE NEW YEAR. THIS WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
MODES INTO NEXT WEEK.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL HELP
IN DRIVING A MORE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TODAY INTO FRIDAY ... HELPING DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BUT
THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE AND
LIMITING PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY Â TWO
SEPARATE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WEST AND NORTH
CUBA WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS ON
FRIDAY. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND COOL MID-LEVELS WILL FAVOR
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN EASTERN CUBA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 - 40MM.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE ... THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
DIRECTION TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
WHICH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN CUBA
.. BELIZE... HONDURAS
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ELSEWHERE...THE PRESENCE OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
(ITCZ) AND WESTERLY ONSHORE WINDS... BOLSTERED BY UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE... WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE
AZUERO REGION OF PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. A SIMILAR PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM.
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA... MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
ANDES... COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT... WILL SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MAXIMA RANGING FROM 25 TO 50MM. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY VENTILATION FROM THE BOLIVIAN HIGH...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE... THE SACZ DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS... AND A DIVERGENT PHASE OF MJO. ALL THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN THE REGION.
LEDESMA...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)
ALAMO...(WPC)
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