061
FXUS01 KWBC 282018
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 PM EST SAT DEC 28 2024
VALID 00Z SUN DEC 29 2024 - 00Z TUE DEC 31 2024
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHEAST...
.. HEAVY MOUNTAIN WEST SNOW POSSIBLE
..ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
THE WET PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY DAY WITH THIS SURGE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO
THE FLOODING THREAT, THERE ARE SURF HAZARDS, WIND HAZARDS (POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH), AND THERE IS A RIVER
FLOODING THREAT BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AS SOME RIVERS CREST PASS ITS
CAPACITY. HOWEVER, THERE IS HOPE ON THE WAY; A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE 40S AND MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD
SUBSIDE, BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ARE FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WITH
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 4/5). THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A COMBINATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS CALLED A QLCS (QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM). DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES
WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS. THE OHIO
VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO ENSUE WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN
THE SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY DUMP 3-6 INCHES IN THE HEAVIEST SPOTS.
ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
APPALACHAINS AS A SHIELD OF RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AND GETS ENHANCED LIFT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
TERRAIN.
THE LAST BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE CASCADES
MAY SEE 1-2 FEET OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS NEAR 40 MPH AND A FEW WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ARE ACTIVE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND EAST COAST WILL BE MORE THAN SEASONABLY WARM
AS ALL THESE REGIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
70S, CENTRAL TEXAS MAY APPROACH 90 AND THREATEN RECORD DAILY
HIGHS, AND THE EAST SEES HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WILDER
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