897
FXUS01 KWBC 290801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2024
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 29 2024 - 12Z TUE DEC 31 2024
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS SHIFT INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST TODAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S.; COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OVER
COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (AT LEAST 15%) LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA TODAY. THIS WET PATTERN IN THE WEST COULD PRODUCE
ROCK, MUD AND LAND SLIDES OVER SUSCEPTIBLE SOILS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CASCADES, NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND SIERRA NEVADA. BETWEEN 1-2 FEET OF SNOW (ISOLATED HIGHER) ARE
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND ROCKIES.
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
SCATTERED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN GULF
COAST TO NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN EFFECT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY, WHILE SOME LIGHT WINTRY
WEATHER MIXES IN OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE, ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A NARROW AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR THIS MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST
5%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO OVER PERFORM GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY, WHILE AN INCREASINGLY
TROUGH-Y PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL PROMOTE COOLING CONDITIONS
BEGINNING MONDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED
OR BROKEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPSTREAM TROUGH. DRY, WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ON
MONDAY.
KEBEDE
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