593
FXUS01 KWBC 290807
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2024
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 29 2024 - 12Z TUE DEC 31 2024
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS SHIFT INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST TODAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S.; COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OVER
COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (AT LEAST 15%) LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA TODAY. THIS WET PATTERN IN THE WEST COULD PRODUCE
ROCK, MUD AND LAND SLIDES OVER VULNERABLE SOILS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CASCADES, NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND SIERRA NEVADA. BETWEEN 1-2 FEET OF SNOW (ISOLATED HIGHER) ARE
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND ROCKIES.
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY
WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
SCATTERED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EASTERN GULF
COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN EFFECT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS WELL, WHILE SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A NARROW AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR THIS MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST
5%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO OVER PERFORM GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY, WHILE AN INCREASINGLY
TROUGH-Y PATTERN IN THE WEST WILL PROMOTE COOLING TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG A STRONG SURFACE WARM
FRONT. DRY, WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY.
KEBEDE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page