799
FXUS01 KWBC 311955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2024
VALID 00Z WED JAN 01 2025 - 00Z FRI JAN 03 2025
...COASTAL STORM TO BRING QUICK MOVING ROUND OF RAIN AND
WELL-INLAND SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND NEW YEAR'S DAY...
...WARMING TREND FOR THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
U.S. EXPERIENCES COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...
...LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN
UNFOLDING TOMORROW DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN, WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST ON NEW
YEAR'S DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN QUEBEC. THIS STORM WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LOWER 48 WHERE COLDER AIR WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, EVENTUALLY
SWEEPING EASTWARD. FROM THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN U.S., TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL EACH DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING AVERAGE FOR NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STRETCH FROM NORTHERN
MONTANA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. THE COLDER AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE STILL RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, STARTING
TOMORROW, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH 6 TO
12+ INCHES IN THE FORECAST, BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW IS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, A SERIES OF PACIFIC FRONTS WILL TRACK INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND WASHINGTON OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
LIGHT, MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHTER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FARTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON WHILE ACCUMULATING SNOW
FALLS INTO THE CASCADE RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
THURSDAY (6-18 INCHES, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION).
IN ADDITION, AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS, SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANSVERSE RANGES
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EXIST TODAY, WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
OF THE SPREADING OF WILDFIRES LINGERING IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
NEW YEAR'S DAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, MANY LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTTO
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