350
FXCA20 KWBC 022033
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 PM EST THU JAN 02 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 JAN 2025 AT 20 UTC:
COLD FRONTS IN THE BASIN: THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... CENTRAL CUBA... AND NORTHERN
REGIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY FRIDAY EVENING... THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS... SOUTHERN
CUBA... AND NORTHERN BELIZE. BY SATURDAY EVENING... EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
NORTHERN BELIZE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE IN QUINTANA ROO... BELIZE... HONDURAS...
AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON
THURSDAY...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN BELIZE/GUATEMALA/NORTHWEST
HONDURAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 - 35MM THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAVORING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ON
SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM DEVELOPING FROM ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA/NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.
AMOUNTS DECREASE THEREAFTER. A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 63W39N SATURDAY MORNING AND
PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN A
POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH LIMITED EFFECTS IN PRECIPITATION GIVEN
VERY LOW AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
SHEAR LINES: IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING
FROM HAITI INTO NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND A MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. TODAY... EXPECT MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30
- 60MM IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. BY SATURDAY...
THE SHEAR LINE WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EXTEND FROM DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THROUGH NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING INTO NORTHEAST COSTA RICA/SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA WILL YIELD ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 - 100MM. BY SUNDAY... THE
WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT WHERE OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL DECREASE... AND THUS TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
IN COLOMBIA... THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR CONVECTION IN THE REGION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN PARTIALLY FAVORED
BY THE REAR END OF THE DIVERGENT MJO AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT LOWER LEVELS...CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE COAST WILL FAVOR TOTALS OF 20 - 40MM/DAY FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AS IT INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHY. IN PERU... AN UPPER
TROUGH AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL YIELD
ACCUMULATIONS OF 25 - 50MM TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SUBEQUATORIAL JET CONTINUES TO BE OF INFLUENCE IN THIS REGION.
TINOCO...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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