365
FXSA20 KWBC 022057
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EST THU JAN 02 2025
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 02 JAN 2025 AT 2100 UTC:
IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE CONTINENT...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER NORTH BOLIVIA AND RONDONIA-BRASIL...AND EXTENDING
INTO NORTH PERU/SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND EAST-CENTRAL BRASIL ON
THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED
INTO NORTH ARGENTINA AND PARAGUAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHS
ALONG THE TRADE WINDS WHERE MOISTURE IS CONVERGING IN SOUTH
PARA...TOCANTINS...AND MARANHAO ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BRASILIAN COUNTRY ON
THURSDAY. WITH THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH OVER THE REGION...THERE IS AMPLE
VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL FAVOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND
INTO NORTH PARAGUAY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS. FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND NORTH PERU...INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE PRESENCE
OF THE DIFFLUENCE AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH...AS WELL
AS INCREASED VALUES OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT...AND INTO THE REGIONS OF BOLIVIA...PARAGUAY...AND
SOUTH BRASIL. IN THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CONTINENT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ADVANCING INTO NORTH ARGENTINA...SOUTH PARAGUAY...AND
SOUTH BRASIL. WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...PREFRONTAL TROUGHS AND THE HIGHER AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONVERGE AND ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED IN
NORTH PARAGUAY...MATO GROSSO DO SUL AND SAO PAULO-BRASIL. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTH BRASIL
WHERE ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-45MM ON BOTH DAYS. SOUTH BOLIVIA..EXTREME NORTH ARGENTINA...AND
NORTHWEST PARAGUAY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER TOTALS. BY SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CONVERGE ALONG THE ANDES MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL
BOLIVIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
IN THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A DEVELOPING RIDGE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CHILE AND ARGENTINA AND EXTEND OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS A RIDGING PATTERN IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE SUR AND AUSTRAL REGIONS OF
CHILE...THE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY REACH CHILE AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES. ON THURSDAY...SOUTH MAGALLANES-CHILE
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIER
DAY WHERE TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN CONE. ON SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED IN THE
PATAGONIA REGION OF ARGENTINA...WHERE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY MORNING...WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...MAXIMA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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