353
FXUS01 KWBC 031925
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2025
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 04 2025 - 00Z MON JAN 06 2025
...HIGHLY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER 48 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY DOWNWIND OF ALL
OF THE LAKES, CONTINUING SUNDAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...
...A LARGER SCALE AND HIGH IMPACT MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT
AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY,
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...BELOW TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STRETCH FROM THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS, EASTWARD INTO THE EAST, WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST
COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPORTING A COLD WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 FROM THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS, EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
THESE COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SET ANY
RECORDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ONGOING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE UPSLOPE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING HIGHLY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREAS
FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
DOWNWIND OF ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SUNDAY TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THIS COLD AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM NORTHEAST OHIO, ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWEST NEW
YORK STATE. SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1 TO
2 FOOT RANGE, CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS AND EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHILE NOT AS GREAT, LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN DOWNWIND
OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR
SNOWFALL FORECAST OF UP TO 4-6 INCHES. IN ADDITION, WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA INTO WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN MARYLAND FOR SNOW
TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, A STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS PRODUCED HEAVY LOWER
ELEVATION RAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS FRIDAY FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS,
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVY SNOWS WILL BE ACROSS
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4-6"+. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, HEAVY SNOWS AND SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-12"+
POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS, FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI, SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN INDIANA,
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. ACROSS THESE REGIONS, THE
EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY BE THE GREATEST IN THE PAST DECADE FOR
SOME REGIONS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST HEAVY SNOW AXIS,
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS, ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI, FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, MUCH OF KENTUCKY, FAR
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF .10-25"+. TRAVEL OF ALL KINDS
WILL LIKELY BE VERY DIFFICULT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ACROSS BOTH
THE EXPECTED HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICING AREAS.
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT FROM THIS
STORM WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. SIMILAR TO AREAS FARTHER TO THE WEST, HEAVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-12" ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHERN VIRGINIA, NEARLY ALL OF MARYLAND, THE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, FAR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MOST OF
DELAWARE WITH VERY DIFFICULT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE LOWER 48,
THERE ARE CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 50 MILLION PEOPLE LIVING IN
AREAS UNDER SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER WARNING, ADVISORY OR WATCH.
IN CONTRAST TO THE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S., ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST COAST. HEAVY SNOWS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES, WASATCH OF
UTAH AND THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES, BUT IN GENERAL, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM THE ROCKIES WESTWARD TO THE WEST COAST.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND ON SUNDAY FROM SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER ARKANSAS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST BEFORE ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THESE REGIONS BY
MONDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
ORAVEC
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