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FXCA20 KWBC 032032
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 JAN 2025 AT 20 UTC:
AN EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO. BY SATURDAY EVENING... THE FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CENTRAL
BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...SOUTHERN
JAMAICA. WEST OF THESE AREAS...EXPECT A WEAKENING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN BELIZE/NORTHERN HONDURAS/NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ENHANCED
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT
TODAY AND SATURDAY...YIELDING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM/DAY.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND JAMAICA...BUT THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY
LIMIT MAXIMA TO 15 - 25MM/DAY.
ALSO OF RELEVANCE...A SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO IMPACT PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA THIS WEEKEND. IT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS HAITI THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. BY SATURDAY
EVENING... IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA THROUGH
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA LOSING DEFINITION THEREAFTER. THE LARGEST
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM IN NORTHEAST COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM IN NORTHERN
COSTA RICA/SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA.
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN: A FORMER SHEAR LINE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
IS LOSING DEFINITION...HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM/DAY IN
BARBADOS ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM FROM
GUADELOUPE INTO BARBADOS AND THE GRENADINES...WHILE IN TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM. ON SUNDAY...THE
ACCELERATION OF THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY REORGANIZE THE SHEAR LINE ACROSS BARBADOS AND
SAINT VINCENT...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM.
THE BUILDING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC BASIN IS FAVORING A SOUTHERN MIGRATION OF THE ITCZ IN
SOUTH AMERICA...BOTH IN THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC BASINS. THIS WILL
YIELD TO A DRYING TREND IN THE GUIANAS...RESULTING IN VERY
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES
FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NET
AND VENTILATION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH.
THIS WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 20 - 45MM/DAY RANGE.
A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO FAR
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS-CENTRAL COAHUILA. THIS PROPAGATES RAPIDLY
SOUTH AND BY MONDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO-CENTRAL VERACRUZ. INITIALLY THIS WILL
HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...EXPECT WETTER
CONDITIONS ONCE THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INTERACT WITH A MOISTER AIRMASS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
TINOCO...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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