088
FXSA20 KWBC 032040
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 PM EST FRI JAN 03 2025
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 03 JAN 2025 AT 2040 UTC:
IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DEEP CONVECTION IS ACTIVATING ON
FRIDAY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IN PORTIONS OF THE
GUIANAS...EAST AND SOUTH BRASIL...AND FROM SOUTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL
INTO BOLIVIA AND PARAGUAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE PRESENCE OF
TROUGHS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH...THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION
ARE RECEIVING AMPLE VENTILATION TO DEEPEN THE CONVECTION. FROM
SOUTH COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...TO CENTRAL AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM CENTRAL BOLIVIA THROUGH NORTH
PARAGUAY...AND INTO SOUTH MINAS GERAIS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
THE CHACO REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS PRECIPITATION IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC AND INTO SAO PAULO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ON
SATURDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES NEAR RIO DE JANEIRO...AS
WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE BASE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINAS GERAIS AND INTERACT
WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH...WHERE THE DIFFLUENCE
WILL ENHANCE THE VENTILATION OF CONVECTION IN THE REGION AND INTO
NORTH BRASIL. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM SOUTH PARA INTO BAHIA.
SOUTHERN BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM ESPIRITO SANTO
TO MATO GROSSO SO SUL AND INTO NORTH PARAGUAY...DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
REGIONS OF CENTRAL BOLIVIA...MOISTURE IS CONVERGING ALONG THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH MEANDERS EASTWARD. THE DIFFLUENCE
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER OVER REGIONS OF NORTH AND EAST
BRASIL...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MOST OF THE REGION. TO THE
NORTH...THE PRESENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH/ITCZ...AND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL-EAST REGIONS OF BRASIL. ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
BRASIL...A TROUGH ALONG THE COUNTRY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20-45MM. AS THE MOISTURE FROM NORTH BRASIL IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO SOUTH PERU AND NORTH BOLIVIA...EXPECT THIS MOIST AIR
TO BE ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ARE EXPECTED
IN SOUTH PERU...WHILE NORTH BOLIVIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS INTO PORTIONS
OF CHILE AND CENTRAL ARGENTINA. EVEN WITH THE PASSING OF SOME
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE SOUTHERN CONE REGION...THERE WILL NOT BE
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. TRACE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER
CENTRAL ARGENTINA...AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PATAGONIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON SUNDAY...THE ENTRANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WILL BE JOINED BY ELEVATED AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH
WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 15-30MM IN MAGALLANES AND SOUTH
AYSEN-CHILE.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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