166
FXUS01 KWBC 050746
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EST SUN JAN 05 2025
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 05 2025 - 12Z TUE JAN 07 2025
...HEAVY SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING ICE, FREEZING RAIN,
ACCUMULATIONS...
...0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. ON SUNDAY, A MAJOR
DISRUPTIVE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM KANSAS TO OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, LEADING TO SEVERE TRAVEL DELAYS. THE
STORM WILL REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH, CREATING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THE SNOW WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES, AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
SURPASS 15 INCHES (THE HEAVIEST IN A DECADE), WHICH WILL MAKE
TRAVEL EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS, WITH IMPASSABLE ROADS. ADDITIONALLY, A
BAND OF 8-14 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
MISSOURI THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SLEET LIKELY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. TRAVELERS SHOULD
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS ALONG THIS PATH.
FURTHERMORE, SIGNIFICANT ICING/FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY.
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE, AND PROLONGED
POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. SOME REGIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH.
ON MONDAY, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO EXTEND FROM KENTUCKY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FURTHERMORE, ON SUNDAY, AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, A FEW
TORNADOS, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF HAIL.
MEANWHILE, COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL CREATE MODERATE TO
HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP DOWNWIND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
FURTHERMORE, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE WEAKENING FRONTS MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE COASTAL RAIN
AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, THE GREAT BASIN,
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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