418
FXCA20 KWBC 061733
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 PM EST MON JAN 06 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 JAN 2025 AT 1730 UTC:
ARCTIC FRONT: A POTENT POLAR TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF THE UNITED STATES IS SUSTAINING AN
EXTENSIVE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. BY MONDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ
AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. BY TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...JUST NORTH OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CENTRAL BELIZE...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/FAR SOUTHEAST
CUBA...JUST NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...CENTRAL
GUATEMMALA. ON MONDAY...AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY IN SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM FROM NORTHERHN OAXACA
INTO NORTHERN CHIAPAS. IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ EXPECT
GEHNERALLY MAXIMA OF 15. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...WHILE IN CHIAPAS AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN COASTAL AREAS OF BELIZE AND
SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. PREFRONTAL
NORTHERLIES WILL ALSO STIMULATE PRECIPITATION AS THEY INTERACT
WITH THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA. IN
SOUTHERN BELIZE/GUATEMALA/NORTHWEST HONDURAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WGHILE IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND ISLAS DE LA BAHIA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN HONDURAS
AND ISLAS DE LA BAHIA...WHERE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
TERRAIN WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. IN CENTRAL
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN CHIAPAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AREAS
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
BAHAMAS WILL RECEIVE GENERALLY LITTLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
SHEAR LINE: A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS ALSO ORGANIZING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS WEST
CUBA...THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. BY
TUESDAY EVENING IT IS RO RAPIDLY RELOCATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
HIDPANIOLA...PROVIDENCIA...SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND TORTUGUERO IN
COSTA RICA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO PROVIDENCIA AND TORTUGUERO IN COSTA RICA.
ON MONDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. ON
TUESDAY THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA...WHILE IN SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA IT FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...INTERACTIONS WITH A MOIST PLUME ARRIVING FRMO THE
CARIBBEAN INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HIGHLIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
EASTERN CARIBBEAN: THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ROLL
EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY TO CENTER TO THE EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N 55W BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
RIDGE AS WELL AS LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
IN THE REGION. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOIST
PLUMES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS PROPAGATING IN THE TRADES. ON
MONDAY ONE TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AS WELL AS IN THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN BARBADOS AND
THE NORTHERN WINDWARDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM IN BARBADOS AND THE NORTHERN
WINDWARDS. A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
THE ARRIVAL OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA: MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLUSTER
IN REGIONS OF ITCZ AND NET CONVERGENCE...AND VENTILATED BY THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY FO THE BOLIVIAN HIGH. MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE ELSO
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ...WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ANDES IN SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR. THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THESE REGIONS. IN AMAPA-BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ON TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR...WHILE IN AMAPA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT THE
AREAS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RELOCATING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN
AMAPA EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS DUE TO ITCZ CONVERGENCE.
SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN MEXICO LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A
POTENT MID-UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICICIENTLY
STRONG TO DEVELOP A SURFACE FRONT AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO FAVOR
SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN MEXICO FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. BY
TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACRISS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...CENTRAL SONORA...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE SIERRA
TARAHUMARA...NORTHERN SINALOA AND SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR 20N
110W. ON TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN OF WESTERN CHIHUAHUA...WITH TRACE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...AS VERTICAL
MOTIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF
NORTHWEST DURANGO AND FAR SOUTHWEST CHIHUAHUA WHERE EXPECT
SNOWFALL MAXIMA OF 15-20CM. IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CHIHUAHUA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10-15CM...WHILE IN CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA EXPECT
SHOWFALL REACHING MAXIMA OF 04-08CM. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
FAR AS NORTHERN COAHUILA...NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND NORTHEAST SONORA.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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