794
FXCA20 KWBC 082040
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 PM EST WED JAN 08 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 JANUARY 2025 AT 19 UTC
ARCTIC FRONT: A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/ SOUTHERN CUBA/ CENTRAL BELIZE/ NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING... IT WILL BE ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA/ CENTRAL
JAMAICA AND A WEAKENING SECTION ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS/ CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. BY THURSDAY EVENIN...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH NICARAGUA AND NORTH COSTA RICA. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS ANTIGUA/ BARBUDA/ ST
KITTS AND NEVIS/ SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 17N....WHILE
TO THE WEST OF THIS LOCATION THE BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A FRONTAL
SHEAR LINE EXTENDING INTO SOUTH NICARAGUA AND NORTH COSTA
RICA...GIVEN A LOSS IN BAROCLINICITY.
AREAS OF THE GREATEST RAINFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ARE NORTHERN HONDURAS/ SOUTHERN BELIZE/ CENTRAL GUATEMALA... WHERE
ENHANCED NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL
YIELD TO MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM. ON THURSDAY... MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE FRONT AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL FAVOR A
RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ON THURSDAY AND DECREASING FOR FRIDAY
IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA.
SHEAR LINE: A SHEAR LINE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA/ SOUTH NICARAGUA/ NORTH COSTA RICA THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...THE DECAYING SHEAR LINE WILL BE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/SOUTH COSTA RICA...TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. THE AREAS
OF GREATEST RAINFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH NICARAGUA
AND NORTH COSTA RICA... WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WILL YIELD A RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 35 - 70MM. BY THURSDAY...
THE AREA OF GREATEST RAINFALL IMPACT INCLUDES THE CARIBBEAN COASTS
OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA... WITH A RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.
A SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN AMPLIFYING POTENT UPPER TROUGH IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE TROUGH EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST SONORA THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE DYNAMIC REGIME IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS TROUGH IS
SUSTAINING A SURFACE COLD FRONT... WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS SONORA/
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. BY THIS EVENING... THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN SONORA. BY THURSDAY EVENING... IT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS DURANGO/ SINALOA/ NAYARIT. BY FRIDAY EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE UNDERGO DECAY OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO. ON
THURSDAY... ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST
MEXICO... LOCATED ACROSS TAMAULIPAS/ NUEVO LEON/ COAHUILA/
CHIHUAHUA... AND WILL BE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ORIENTAL
SIERRA MADRE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL YIELD TO A RAINFALL
MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ON THURSDAY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL SINALOA AND A
RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 40 - 80MM IN EAST SINALOA AND WEST DURANGO ON
FRIDAY. COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ASSIST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL AND THUNDER SNOW IN SIERRA TARAHUMARA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15 - 30CM. ON FRIDAY... EXPECT SNOWFALL ACROSS EAST
SONORA AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WITH TOTALS OF 08 - 12CM.
IN SOUTH AMERICA... THE ITCZ... NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH... AND
VENTILATION FROM THE BOLIVIAN HIGH CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE REGION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE DRYING
TREND IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE LARGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL AND EASTERN
PERU. IN COLOMBIA... THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH AND ITCZ WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC BASIN... YIELD RAINFALL MAXIMA
OF 20 - 35MM THROUGH THURSDAY AND A RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20 - 40MM
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN THE ATLANTIC... THE ITCZ WILL IMPACT
NORTHEAST BRASIL AND FRENCH GUIANA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS
WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM/DAY.
IN THE CARIBBEAN... RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE AREA... BUT ENHANCED STABILITY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS LOW. ON FRIDAY... A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN... WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM
POSSIBLE.
TINOCO...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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