030
FXUS01 KWBC 090747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EST THU JAN 09 2025
VALID 12Z THU JAN 09 2025 - 12Z SAT JAN 11 2025
...DECREASING LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY...
...A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN, ICING, OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...
...LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY; LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND LIGHT SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO,
ADVANCING EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING
AND TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTERN FLORIDA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND TO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH ICE,
FREEZING RAIN, FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 6-8 INCHES WILL
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE, FREEZING RAIN, WILL OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON FRIDAY, ICING, FREEZING
RAIN, WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH AMOUNTS AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM. SOME IMPACTS ARE WIDESPREAD CLOSURES, TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES, AND DOWNED BRANCHES EXPECTED FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN OZARKS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
WHICH WILL BE 6 INCHES ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, ON THURSDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN WILL SET UP SANTA
ANA WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED
A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH, WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE TERRAIN, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS.
MOREOVER, ON THURSDAY, EXITING UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND DEVELOPING
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CREATE WANING
LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP A FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY
SATURDAY.
ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN
ADDITION, ON FRIDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL DELIVER LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST.
IN THE MEANTIME, OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RACE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER
COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY SATURDAY, THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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