273
FXUS01 KWBC 130724
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 AM EST MON JAN 13 2025
VALID 12Z MON JAN 13 2025 - 12Z WED JAN 15 2025
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK...
...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO AS RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES THROUGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.,
WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA
OF THE COUNTRY. BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
WILL RESULT IN A LACK OF RAIN/SNOW FOR MANY AREAS OF THE LOWER 48
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA
TODAY WILL BRING A GRADUAL END TO RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER COLD FRONT, MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL REACH THE MIDWEST TODAY AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS WHICH COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM SUDDEN REDUCED VISIBILITIES, GUSTY WINDS AND
QUICK MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING/LOSING
VIGOR AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST, BUT WILL STILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
LOCALIZED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 FEET FOR ISOLATED
LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT BANDING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONUS WILL ALSO INCLUDE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH HAS EXPERIENCED A NUMBER OF HIGH PROFILE
WILDFIRES OVER THE PAST WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND INCREASING
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL AGAIN LEAD TO STRONG
GUSTS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FOR THESE LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
WIND GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL (DRY FUELS), A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE UNDER A
HIGH RISK FOR LARGE FIRES WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID SPREADING
OF ANY FIRES THAT MAY DEVELOP.
OTTO
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