388
FXUS01 KWBC 132001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 14 2025 - 00Z THU JAN 16 2025
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY...
...BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR SET TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AS A DRIER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WEATHER HAPPENINGS RANGING FROM EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER, TO LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, TO ARCTIC COLD
WILL STILL POSE A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER STRONG DOWNSLOPE SANTA ANA WINDS PRODUCED MULTIPLE WILDFIRES
THAT DEVASTATED COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LAST WEEK,
YET ANOTHER DAMAGING, DOWNSLOPE, OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS RAMPING UP
AGAIN TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
UPWARDS OF 55 TO 75 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES WHICH COULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE GREATER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS FORECAST BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. NOT ONLY WILL THESE EXTREME AND DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS MAKE FIGHTING ONGOING FIRES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT, BUT
THESE WILL MAKE NEW IGNITIONS MUCH MORE LIKELY. NEW FIRES THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW AND SPREAD RAPIDLY, ADDING
TO THE DANGER OF THE SITUATION.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS ALREADY SURGED
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
MODIFYING/LOSING VIGOR AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST, BUT WILL
STILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 FEET FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT
BANDING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.
MILLER/OTTO
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