782
FXUS01 KWBC 140801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 14 2025 - 12Z THU JAN 16 2025
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...
...MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WARMING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
ON THURSDAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER 48 THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A LACK OF PRECIPITATION WITH A WARMING TREND
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE A REFLECTION OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION AND RIDGING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FORECAST TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY.
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY WITH
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH FOCUSED ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR MANY OF THESE SAME LOCATIONS WITH A BROADER, THOUGH
NOT AS EXTREME, THREAT EXTENDING ALONG MOST OF THE TRANSVERSE AND
PENINSULAR RANGES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE IN MAGNITUDE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
REMAIN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, FAVORABLE TO VERY RAPID FIRE GROWTH IF
A FIRE DOES START.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., ANOTHER SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, WITH THE COLD CONTINUING FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTELRY TO WESTERLY WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR THE REGION. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO JUMP ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TUESDAY FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., MOVING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM BELOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST FOR THURSDAY BUT THE EAST COAST WILL STILL
REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
THE OTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORES OF THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE LOCAL WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, MOVING NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW NORTH OR SOUTH,
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET (LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, ESPECIALLY INTO THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU.
OTTO
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