270
FXUS01 KWBC 151913
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
VALID 00Z THU JAN 16 2025 - 00Z SAT JAN 18 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY BUT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOWARD END OF
WEEK...
...A BRIEF MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...
...LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BUT AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY..
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND HELP
ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY THURSDAY (MORE ON THAT IN THE
DISCUSSION). THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT PASS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH ITS PASSAGE. OVERALL,
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.THE EASTERN U.S.
LOOKS TO REMAIN BROADLY IN A TROUGHING PATTERN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTS MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH (ISOLATED 60
MPH GUSTS), ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS.THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH AND LOCALIZED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES WILL
STILL REMAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT TOWARD WEAKLY ONSHORE, BUT A PDS RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES UNTIL NOON ON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
WEAKEN. VISIT THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR SPECIFIC
INFORMATION AND WATCHES/WARNINGS.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO EAST
COAST. THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SEE ITS TEMPERATURES MODIFY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL
BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE EAST COAST WILL NOT BE SO
QUICK TO MODIFY AS TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AND HIGHS
WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE APPROACHING
NEAR AVERAGE ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST. COASTAL REGIONS AND THE 95 CORRIDOR MAY STILL SEE LOWS
IN THE TEENS. FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 20S WITH NEW
ENGLAND STILL QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE. T
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE EERIE WHERE A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS VALID THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER,COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE ADVANCING EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY, REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST
LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
ELSEWHERE, THE SOUTH WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR WITH CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
FRONT SHOULD START TO DIE ENTERING THE REGION IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. EYES THEN TURN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. STAY TUNED WITH KEY MESSAGES ON THE COLD BLAST ON
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE.
WILDER/OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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