600
FXUS01 KWBC 160716
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
VALID 12Z THU JAN 16 2025 - 12Z SAT JAN 18 2025
...IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...A BRIEF MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND SNOW ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
THERE WILL BE A FEW THINGS MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, AND THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY, WHERE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW IS ALSO ON THE WAY FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW LEADING TO 5-10 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA,
WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE
ROCKIES GOING INTO FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY, AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO REALITY IS COMING BY FRIDAY
AS A PAIR OF STRONG COLD FRONTS HERALDS THE ARRIVAL OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
WELL BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS KEY MESSAGES REGARDING THIS ARCTIC BLAST.
THIS COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW
SQUALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS GOING
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS BUT ACCOMPANIED WITH POOR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY
WINDS.
FOR THE EASTERN U.S., A GRADUAL MODERATION TREND IN THE RECENT
VERY COLD CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE EAST COAST,
AND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THIS REGION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THEN.
THINGS ARE STARTING TO LOOK BETTER IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVASTATED BY THE ONGOING
WILDFIRES. EVEN THOUGH NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY, BRINGING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LESS CHAOTIC WIND
FLOW, THUS HELPING TO MITIGATE THE WILDFIRE THREAT COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS.
HAMRICK
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